Is the recession good for agriculture?

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Mr. Greenjeans

What Does Peak Oil Mean for Farmers?

There is much debate lately about whether or not the Peak Oil theory is true or not. Peak oil occurs when worldwide oil production can no longer increase as fast as demand. The effect of even a minor lack of oil would effect the lives of everyone on earth. I don't think the debate should be about if peak oil is true or not, it should be when will it happen. There is no debating that there is only so much oil on earth, therefore we will one day run out. When the first oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, the population of the earth had barely surpassed 1 billion, now it is 7 billion and counting, all because of oil. At the same time, advances in agriculure allowed farmers to produce much more food on the same or less land, again largely because of oil. Can we feed the world's population from a shrinking landbase if oil reaches $200  a barrel? I really don't think so. At least not without a technological breakthrough bigger than any we have ever achieved.

What happens to agriculture when oil hits $200 and beyond? It will no longer be profitable to operate large scale farms because of fuel and fertilizer costs. It will no longer be profitable to raise livestock because grain will be used more and more to produce fuel. It will no longer be possible to transport food halfway around the globe to satisfy fickle consumers. Those with money will have to return to a more traditional diet, and those with none will go hungry. Farmers will have to dig in and hang on by their fingernails until the world economy settles out, through massive social changes, recession, war and starvation.